Fundamentals of Bond

#termstructure #economics #finance

Oh, Hyunzi. (email: wisdom302@naver.com)
Korea University, Graduate School of Economics.


Main References

  • Kim, Seung Hyun. (2024). "Asset Pricing and Term Structure Models". WORK IN PROGRESS.

Bond and Yields

A coupon bond is a bond that pays a interest payment (coupon) from the date of issuance until the date of maturity.

  • face/par value (): the fixed price that the issuer pays at the time of maturity.
  • maturity (): the time when the bond issuer must repay the original bond value.
  • coupon (): a fixed dividend that a bond pays until the time of maturity.

A zero-coupon bond is a bond that pays no coupons, i.e. . Note that any coupon bond that pays a coupon can be seen as a composite of various zero-coupon bonds with the face value of . For the rest of the section, we only consider a zero-coupon bond, where and . Now, by denoting period bond for a zero-coupon bond with periods left to maturity,

  • price of the period bond at : .
  • yield of the period bond at : .
  • yield at the maturity is zero: , as .
  • short rate (risk-free rate of return) is essentially the yield of the zero-coupon bond with one-period left to maturity:

Since the price of the bond must equals to the average rate of the bond until maturity, we have by taking logs on the both sides, thus, the yield of the period zero-coupon bond can be defined as Note that where is the rate of return from investing the bond at and holding it to maturity. In other words, represents the average rate of return of the bond until maturity.

Also, we can conversely recover bond price from the yields:

Now, consider for a case where an investor buys a period bond at time and holding it until time . For this case, we call such return as period ahead.

  • period ahead rate of return for period bond: .
  • period ahead excess return for period bond: .
  • period ahead expected excess return (risk premium) of period bond: .

Here, the is derived by

If , we call it one-period ahead holding period. Then

  • one-period ahead rate of return for period bond: .
  • one-period ahead excess return for period bond: .
  • one-period ahead risk-premium: .

Forward Rate

Suppose a case where we are interested in the future risk-free (one period ahead) rate , at time .

  1. Issue a zero-coupon period bond at . then we have units of numeraire.
  2. Buy worth of period bond at . then we have units of bonds maturing at time .

Then,

  1. At time , the issued bond from step 1 will mature, thus cost of incurs.
  2. At time , the purchased bond from step 2 will mature, thus we receive the payoff of .

From the given setting, now we can define the forward rate.

Definition (forward rate).

The forward rate is the current level of the future risk-free rate, which is given as where is the current level of the risk-free rate of return, inspected for the periods from now.

Using Taylor approximation, we have then by summing up from up to , we have Thus the yield of period bonds at time can be described as Similarly, which equals to This implies that the difference between the forward rate from time to and the risk-free rate in the same time intervals, equals to the difference between the returns from period holdings for bond and the returns from period holdings for bond.

Expectations Hypothesis

Proposition (expectation hypothesis).

The expectation hypothesis (EH) refers to a series of equality that must hold under the law of one price when investors are risk-neutral.

  1. For long term yields: the expected payoffs from investing in a period bond until maturity and that from successively investing it in a one-period bond for period must be equal.
  2. For short rates: the risk premium of a period bond is .
  3. For forward rates: the period ahead forward rate is equal to the expected period ahead risk-free rate.
Definition (term premium, risk premium, and forward premium).

Empirically, Proposition 2 (expectation hypothesis) is hardly satisfied. When the investors are risk-averse, then the above hypotheses can be reformulated as where , , and are referred to as Term Premium, Risk Premium, and Forward Premium, respectively. In particular, the term is called as EH component.